Victor Osimhen is the man in focus after the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw delivered a heavyweight clash between Galatasaray and Liverpool.
While the tactical battle between Okan Buruk and Arne Slot is fascinating, the headline remains the individual duel between the world’s most feared striker, Victor Osimhen, and a Liverpool defense he has historically terrorized.
As we look ahead to the two legs on March 10 (RAMS Park) and March 18 (Anfield), the data suggests that Osimhen isn't just a threat – he may be turning into Liverpool’s ultimate kryptonite.
Victor Osimhen vs Liverpool: The data
Victor Osimhen’s track record against the Merseysiders is a masterclass in physical and clinical efficiency. Across three career appearances, the Nigerian international has consistently breached the high defensive line that has become synonymous with the “Slot era.”
September 2022 (Napoli 4-1 Liverpool):
Though he only played 41 minutes before an injury, Osimhen won a penalty after terrifying Virgil van Dijk in transition. His 0.79 xG in less than a half of football showcased his ability to find space where none exists.
September 2025 (Galatasaray 1-0 Liverpool):
In their most recent meeting, Osimhen scored the only goal in a 1-0 Galatasaray victory, ending Liverpool’s unbeaten streak. He recorded 4 shots (3 on target) and maintained a staggering 0.93 xG, proving he can create high-value chances even against elite opposition.
The physical toll:
According to StatMuse and WhoScored, Osimhen has won an average of 3.7 aerial duels per 90 minutes in the 2025/26 Champions League. His ability to bully center-backs like Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté in the air provides Galatasaray with an “out ball” that few teams possess.
2025/26 Form:
Osimhen enters this tie in the form of his life, with 24 goals across all competitions this season, including 7 in the Champions League. His conversion rate of 12.5% in Europe remains a constant danger for a Liverpool side that occasionally leaves gaps in transition.
How Galatasaray can unlock Victor Osimhen
To secure progression to the quarter-finals (where a potential clash with PSG or Chelsea awaits), Galatasaray must optimize their service to the Nigerian talisman.
1. Exploit the “half-spaces”:
Under Arne Slot, Liverpool’s full-backs often tuck inside. Galatasaray’s wingers, Noa Lang and Barış Alper Yılmaz, must stay wide to drag Liverpool's center-backs out of position. This creates 1v1 isolated scenarios for Osimhen, where his superior acceleration can be lethal.
2. Direct verticality:
Data from Opta shows that Liverpool’s PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) is among the lowest in the Premier League, indicating a fierce press.
Galatasaray must bypass this by playing “long-and-low” through balls into the channels, utilizing Osimhen’s elite off-the-shoulder movement to beat the offside trap — a noted weakness in his game that he has significantly improved in recent seasons.
Liverpool’s strategy: How to neutralize the Osimhen threat
Arne Slot is no stranger to Osimhen’s danger. Following the September defeat, Slot noted the difficulty of managing the striker's “physical edge.”
1. The midfield screen:
Expect Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch to play a more disciplined, deeper role. Their primary objective will be to cut the passing lanes from Gabriel Sara to Osimhen, starving the striker of service before he even touches the ball.
2. Managing the depth:
Liverpool will likely drop their defensive line by 5-10 yards at Anfield to negate the space Osimhen loves to run into. By forcing him to play with his back to goal, Liverpool can leverage Van Dijk's strength to keep him away from the “danger zone” (the central 18-yard box).
Osimhen vs Liverpool prediction: Impact of the “mask man”
Osimhen has already stated this tie feels like “revenge” for Liverpool. Given his history of performing in high-pressure “hell” atmospheres like RAMS Park, the data points toward him finding the net at least once across the two legs.
If Liverpool cannot solve the “Osimhen problem” in Istanbul, the second leg at Anfield might be a mountain too high to climb.
