NPFL: Why away wins are still this rare after 12 rounds

Only 11 of the 116 NPFL matches played in the first 12 rounds of the 2026/27 season have ended in away wins, and that home grip is shaping both the title race led by Enugu Rangers and Enyimba's slide to 18th.

Home sides have won 66 of those games, or 57 per cent, according to a Complete Sports review of the season so far published on Tuesday. Another 39 have been drawn, which leaves away wins at just 9 per cent.

For comparison, the same review put home win rates in Europe's top five leagues at around 40 to 45 per cent. In the NPFL, as Complete Sports writer Solomon Ojeagbase put it, “an away win is still an event”.

Rangers on top, Enyimba in the drop zone

Enugu Rangers lead on 24 points from 11 games, four ahead of Nasarawa United. Barau FC, Kano Pillars and Bendel Insurance are bunched on 19, with Rivers United a point further back on 18 and a game in hand.

At the other end, Enyimba sit 18th with 11 points from 12 games: three wins, two draws and seven defeats, with a goal difference of minus four. For a club with the People's Elephant's history, that is a stark return a third of the way into the campaign.

Rangers' place at the top has not come without controversy, after the NFF suspended two match officials over the goal Kwara United had ruled out in Awka. The Flying Antelopes had already moved back to the summit before Matchday 12, as Soccernet reported when they returned to first place, a week after four clubs had shared top spot.

Analysis: the title will be won on the road

When nearly six in ten games go the home side's way, winning at home only keeps a club in the pack. With 11 away wins shared across the whole division, a single victory on the road is worth far more than three points in the table: it is three points most rivals will not collect from the same fixture.

That makes the Rangers lead more significant than four points suggests. The chasing group is so tightly packed that one or two away results could reshape the top six, while a club that keeps its home record intact and steals the odd win on its travels would be very hard to catch.

The same logic explains why Enyimba's position is serious rather than fatal. Seven defeats is a heavy count, but in a league where home form decides so much, a run of wins in Aba could lift them quickly. The danger is that every slip at home now costs double, because the away points to make up for it are so scarce.

The next round will show whether any of the leading pack can break the pattern and buy themselves some breathing space away from home.