Opta supercomputer has released its pre-tournament projections for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), with Morocco and Egypt emerging as the leading contenders for the title, Soccernet.ng reports.
Nigeria, despite finishing as runners-up at the last edition, sit further down the pecking order in the statistical forecast.
AFCON 2025 will run from 21 December to 18 January, with Morocco hosting the tournament for the first time after Guinea were stripped of hosting rights.
Defending champions Côte d’Ivoire will be aiming to retain their crown, but Opta’s data suggests a fierce battle at the top.
Morocco Lead the Predictions on Home Soil
Morocco are the Opta supercomputer’s outright favourites to win AFCON 2025, lifting the trophy in 19.1% of simulations and reaching the final in 29.9%.
Walid Regragui’s side arrive in outstanding form, riding an 18-match winning streak, scoring 50 goals while conceding just four.
With home advantage, Morocco are also given a 94% chance of progressing from Group A, where they face Mali, Zambia, and Comoros.
Egypt Close Behind as Salah Eyes History
Egypt are rated second favourites, with a 12.4% chance of lifting the trophy and a 21.8% probability of reaching the final.
The Pharaohs remain the most successful nation in AFCON history with seven titles, though they have not won the competition since 2010.
Much of Egypt’s hope rests on Mohamed Salah, who is set to feature in his fifth AFCON. Despite a mixed club season, Salah scored nine goals during World Cup qualification and remains key to Egypt’s campaign.
Egypt open their Group B campaign against Zimbabwe, alongside South Africa and Angola.
Senegal and Algeria Remain Strong Contenders
Senegal, champions in 2021, are narrowly behind Egypt with a 12.3% chance of winning AFCON 2025. Under new coach Pape Thiaw, the Lions of Teranga have impressed against elite opposition and possess one of the tournament’s most dangerous attacks, led by Sadio Mané, Ismaïla Sarr, and Iliman Ndiaye.
Riyad Mahrez arrives at Algeria camp ahead of the Africa Cup of Nations #AlAhli | #AhliCentral pic.twitter.com/aHbzsJqFcr
— Ahli Central (@AhliCentral1) December 15, 2025
Algeria follow closely with a 12.0% chance of winning the title. Despite recent AFCON disappointments, the presence of Riyad Mahrez and Mohamed Amoura keeps the Desert Foxes firmly in contention.
Where Does Super Eagles of Nigeria Stand?
Nigeria are ranked outside the top four favourites, with the Opta supercomputer giving the Super Eagles a 7.3% chance of winning AFCON 2025. While that places them behind Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Algeria, Nigeria remains among the tournament’s dangerous outsiders.
The Super Eagles face a challenging Group C alongside Tunisia, Uganda, and Tanzania, with just a 42.9% chance of topping the group, narrowly ahead of Tunisia.
However, history suggests Nigeria often outperform expectations at AFCON, having reached at least the semi-finals in eight of their last ten appearances.
