Eritrea, the homeland of Alexander Isak, might just become the unseen reason the Super Eagles qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccernet.ng reports.
Earlier, Eritrea withdrew from the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, as confirmed by FIFA in 2023, reducing the number of teams in Group E to five: Morocco, Zambia, Congo, Tanzania, and Niger.
Meanwhile, the East African country may not be competing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, but its absence could impact Nigeria’s route to the tournament. Interestingly, the small African nation also happens to be the ancestral home of Liverpool's striker.
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How Eritrea’s Withdrawal Could Help Nigeria
Eritrea pulled out of Group E before the CAF qualifiers began, leaving that group with only five teams, while the other eight groups have six.
To maintain fairness when ranking the best second-placed teams, as previously done in 2012, CAF is expected to exclude results against bottom-placed teams in the six-team groups.
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If that rule is confirmed, Nigeria could benefit. The Super Eagles have dropped valuable points against lower-ranked teams like Zimbabwe and Lesotho, which means that the exclusion of those results would hurt them less than other teams that beat those sides comfortably.
Nigeria’s Position in the World Cup Qualifying Group
After eight matches, Nigeria sit third in Group C behind Benin and South Africa, with 11 points. The Super Eagles have struggled for consistency, having drawn Zimbabwe and Lesotho in their first meetings, while their only defeats came against Benin and South Africa.
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With two matches left, away against Lesotho and at home against Benin, Nigeria must win both to stand a realistic chance of topping the group or staying alive in the playoff race.
Super Eagles’ Ranking Among Best Second-Placed Teams
Only the four best second-placed teams across the nine groups will advance to the CAF playoff stage, which could then lead to an intercontinental playoff.
Currently, Nigeria sit far behind Gabon, Madagascar, DR Congo, and Burkina Faso. That position could improve depending on the results of other groups and whether CAF applies the rule to disregard points against the last-placed teams.
If CAF Excludes Results vs Bottom Teams
This adjustment could actually play in Nigeria’s favour. The Super Eagles drew both matches against Zimbabwe and have taken only one point from their first meeting with Lesotho. What this means is that they would lose fewer points under the exclusion rule.
In contrast, South Africa beat Zimbabwe twice and Lesotho once, while Benin also defeated both sides. If either Lesotho or Zimbabwe finish bottom, those teams would lose more points than Nigeria. This would further narrow the gap in both group and playoff standings.
Why It Matters Now
The final international window in November will be decisive. Nigeria no longer have room for error, and every point counts.
Whether or not CAF confirms the exclusion rule, the Super Eagles must secure maximum points from their final two games to stay in contention.
Eritrea’s earlier withdrawal has introduced an unexpected twist to the qualification system and this could influence who makes it to the 2026 World Cup from Africa.
Eritrea and Alexander Isak’s Connection to Nigeria’s Fate
Though Alexander Isak represents Sweden internationally, his parents are Eritrean, and he has frequently spoken about his pride in his heritage. In 2019, he even visited Eritrea, calling it an important part of his identity.
