Africa Cup of Nations Predictions: Expert Analysis & Betting Tips

This page offers expert Africa Cup of Nations predictions, highlighting the top favourites, dark horses, top scorer candidates, group stage predictions and betting insights for the 2025 tournament.

Before exploring our picks, we recommend getting familiar with the best AFCON betting sites for Nigerian bettors.

Top 5 Favourites to Win the Africa Cup of Nations

Based on our analysis of squads, current form, and tournament pedigree, here are our expert predictions of the top five AFCON favourites to win the 2025 tournament:

• Morocco @ 3.60
• Egypt @ 6.70
• Senegal @ 7.23
• Algeria @ 7.40
• Nigeria @ 9.83

(Odds based on our experts' average from Bet9ja, Betano and BetKing. For the latest tournament odds, see our AFCON betting odds page)

Morocco ~3.60 Odds

As tournament hosts, Morocco are the undisputed favourites to win the Africa Cup of Nations. They have built a formidable reputation since their historic 2022 World Cup run.

They breezed through AFCON qualifying with a perfect record: 6 wins from 6, scoring 26 goals and conceding only two. This dominance is why leading bookmakers price them at the shortest odds to win the tournament.

The squad's strength is its spine of world-class European talent. At the back, the exceptional Yassine Bono is shielded by the leadership of Romain Saïss and Nayef Aguerd, with Achraf Hakimi offering a game-changing threat from defence. In midfield, Azzedine Ounahi provides energy, ingenuity and tempo-setting, while the creativity and dribbling of Brahim Díaz is key for breaking down stubborn defences. Up front, the proven goalscoring of Youssef En-Nesyri gives them a reliable finisher.

However, their biggest strength is also their greatest challenge. While their organisation and home support are major assets, the immense pressure from expectant local crowds could become a burden. History shows that the favourites tag and hosting duties can weigh heavily. Yet, if they can manage these expectations, Morocco have a strong chance of justifying our Africa Cup of Nations predictions backing them to win on home soil.

Egypt ~6.70 Odds

Egypt are perennial contenders and natural favourites. In Mohamed Salah, they possess a game-winner capable of deciding any match single-handedly. This tournament, being in North Africa, is a significant boost, as the Pharaohs are guaranteed massive support, turning Moroccan stadiums into a near-home atmosphere and easing their path.

Under Hossam Hassan, Egypt have excelled in a pragmatic, tournament-ready style. However, the question remains whether their pragmatic structure can consistently create enough chances against the continent's best.

There is a persistent concern of over-reliance on Salah's individual brilliance in tight matches. However, their combination of a world-class talisman, a battle-hardened tournament style, and favourable conditions makes Egypt a formidable and dangerous opponent for any team with designs on the title.

Senegal ~7.23 Odds

Senegal are one of the most reliable teams in AFCON predictions and are expected to reach the latter stages. They have not lost in regulation time since the 2022 World Cup, with their only defeat coming on penalties to the Ivory Coast at the last AFCON. Tactical flexibility is their main strength, allowing them to control possession or strike quickly on the counter

Sadio Mané remains the heartbeat, proving his enduring class with 6 goals in his last 8 internationals this year. He is supported by the dynamic duo of Iliman Ndiaye and Lamine Camara in midfield, alongside the experience of Idrissa Gueye. At the back, Kalidou Koulibaly and goalkeeper Édouard Mendy provide a foundation of tournament-winning experience.

While the core of the 2021 championship-winning team is ageing, the integration of a vibrant new generation suggests a smooth transition rather than a decline. With their proven pedigree, adaptable tactics, and balanced squad, Senegal possess all the components required for another deep tournament run.

Algeria ~7.40 Odds

Algeria are a fascinating and potentially high-value pick in this year's AFCON predictions. Their recent tournament history is surprising: the 2019 champions have not won a single AFCON match since that triumph, suffering back-to-back group-stage exits.

However, recent form is far better, with a dominant AFCON qualifying campaign with 5 wins and a draw, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 2. They also secured World Cup qualification with 8 wins from 10 games. The team's strength is anchored on a rock-solid defence, a hallmark of their 2019 success. Veterans like Aïssa Mandi, Ramy Bensebaini, and Youcef Atal provide experience and organisation, making them extremely difficult to break down.

In attack, while Riyad Mahrez remains the iconic figure, the goal-scoring burden has shifted to the in-form Mohamed Amoura, their top scorer in World Cup qualifying, and the ever-reliable Baghdad Bounedjah, whose winner in the 2019 final proves his big-game pedigree.

A major concern is the absence of the influential Amine Gouiri due to injury. The key question remains whether they can translate their flawless qualifying form into the high-pressure knockout environment of the tournament. That is a hurdle they have failed to clear in the past two tournaments. However, the North African location for the tournament could provide a springboard to push them over the line.

Nigeria ~9.83 Odds

Nigeria's journey is one of redemption and unfulfilled potential, making them one of the most compelling AFCON 2025 favourites. As runners-up in 2023, they outperformed expectations, but that final defeat to the Ivory Coast left a lingering hunger. However, they are unbeaten in regulation time across all competitive matches since, with their only loss coming via penalty shootout in a World Cup playoff against DR Congo.

The attack is led by Victor Osimhen, whose legacy as one of Nigeria's all-time greats hinges on finally delivering at a tournament. He still has only 1 AFCON goal. He is supported by Ademola Lookman, Alex Iwobi, and Samuel Chukwueze. At the back, Calvin Bassey provides needed leadership with William Troost-Ekong now retired.

Nigeria's failure to qualify for two consecutive World Cups casts a shadow, raising questions about this team's consistency at the highest level. Their success is also tied to Osimhen finding his scoring boots. Their strength in variety is clear, but the pressure to deliver a major trophy for the first time since 2013 is immense. Nigeria possesses the raw ingredients to go one step further than last time and lift the trophy, but they will need to navigate tough knockout games perfectly.

AFCON Predictions: Which Teams Could Surprise in Morocco?

Several teams outside the top five possess the quality to spring a surprise and go all the way. Tournament football often produces unexpected runs.

Ivory Coast ~12.67 Odds

The defending champions remain a dangerous dark horse due to their deep, tournament-hardened squad and the confidence of being reigning title holders. While they are navigating changes, with Nicolas Pépé omitted and Wilfried Zaha returning as a potential x-factor, their core remains strong.

The midfield will again rely on the physicality and leadership of Franck Kessié, while the creative ingenuity of Manchester United's Amad Diallo could help against tight defences. While their higher odds reflect the historical difficulty of defending an AFCON title and the absence of home support, writing off a squad with this depth and proven big-game mentality would be a mistake.

Mali ~14.33 Odds

Mali are the perennial nearly-men of the tournament, holding the unwanted record of being the team with the most semi-final appearances without winning the trophy. However, they always rank high in AFCON predictions.

They are a physically formidable and tactically disciplined side that consistently causes major problems for the continent's elite, yet have a heartbreaking history of falling agonisingly short. Their recurring misfortune was most recently exemplified by their last-minute extra-time collapse against the Ivory Coast in the 2023 quarter-finals.

The squad is anchored by the experience and leadership of captain Hamari Traoré in defence, and Lassine Sinayoko carries the burden of scoring the goals. While their odds reflect the justifiable scepticism about their ability to deliver when it matters, their consistent ability to reach the latter stages makes them a prime candidate to upset the established order and rewrite their painful history.

South Africa ~43.67 Odds

South Africa have emerged as the tournament's ultimate dark horse, a team whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Their transformation under Hugo Broos has been remarkable. They qualified for their first World Cup since 2010 (ahead of Nigeria) and reached the AFCON semi-finals for the first time in 24 years last time out.

Their strength is not star power but an exceptional team cohesion and a disciplined, attacking system that frustrates superior opponents. The influential Teboho Mokoena orchestrates the midfield, while goalkeeper Ronwen Williams, who saved four penalties in a single shootout last tournament, provides a formidable last line of defence.

While their long odds accurately reflect their underdog status, their proven tournament resilience make them a dangerous and credible threat to cause major upsets once again.

Big Names to Avoid

Some traditionally strong teams face significant challenges that make them poor betting propositions. It will be a wise decision to avoid them entirely, even if their odds are tempting.

Cameroon ~19.33 Odds

The Indomitable Lions are a prime candidate for disappointment in this tournament, as internal chaos has severely undermined their prospects. A chaotic period saw the high-profile omissions of iconic striker Vincent Aboubakar and first-choice goalkeeper André Onana due to disputes with federation president Samuel Eto'o.

This was followed by the sacking of coach Marc Brys virtually on the eve of the tournament. This instability adds to their poor recent form, which peaked with their loss to DR Congo in the World Cup playoff semi-finals.

They have also been placed in a tough group with defending champions Ivory Coast, high-flying Gabon and Mozambique. With their attack now heavily reliant on Bryan Mbeumo, who has scored just 7 goals in 27 caps, the squad lacks proven firepower and settled leadership required for a deep run. Their odds may tempt based on reputation, but the off-field disarray means bettors should avoid them.

Tunisia ~13.67 Odds

Tunisia's reputation as a tough opponent masks a two-decade trend of tournament underachievement, making them another big name to approach with caution. Since their 2004 triumph, they have progressed beyond the quarter-finals only once, and their group-stage exit in 2021 highlighted their limitations. While they navigated World Cup qualifying with defensive solidity, their unconvincing qualification campaign reveals a team lacking the cutting edge of past generations.

Without a standout star to change games in the tight, high-pressure matches that define the knockout stages, their pragmatic but often uninspiring style frequently sees them reach a ceiling they cannot break. Their odds offer little value for a side that consistently struggles to translate resilience into deep tournament progress.

AFCON Top Scorer Prediction: Golden Boot Favourites

The Golden Boot race will likely be decided by which striker's team progresses furthest, while allowing him to be the main offensive focal point. Here are our top five AFCON favourites predictions to win the Golden Boot, analysing their form, role, and team prospects:

Victor Osimhen (Nigeria) – 7.00

Osimhen leads the AFCON predictions for top scorer. Nigeria's group stage fixtures provide scoring opportunities, especially the opener against Tanzania. He has scored 8 goals in 7 games for Nigeria in 2025 and looks poised to improve on his record of just 1 tournament goal. With designated penalty taker William Troost-Ekong now retired, Osimhen may take over penalty duties. We predict that Nigeria will reach the semi-finals, giving Osimhen six or seven matches. Five goals could secure the golden boot.

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) – 7.00

Salah remains Egypt's heartbeat and primary goal threat. He takes penalties and is central to almost all their attacking play. While Egypt's pragmatic style may not create a flood of chances, their progression to the quarter-finals (around 5 games) is likely, and Salah has the quality to be decisive in any match. Four or five goals seem realistic. If they go deeper, it could be more.

Youssef En-Nesyri (Morocco) – 15.00

As the starting centre-forward for the tournament favourites, En-Nesyri has a prime opportunity. Morocco are expected to reach the final, meaning he could play 6 or 7 games in a team that will dominate possession and create numerous chances. While he may not be the most prolific finisher, the sheer volume of service from players like Abde, Ounahi and Brahim makes him a serious contender.

Mohamed Amoura (Algeria) – 21.00

Amoura is the in-form wildcard. He was the top scorer in CAF World Cup qualifying with 10 goals, showcasing electric pace and clinical finishing. If Algeria can overcome their recent tournament struggles and advance to the knockout stages (4-5 games), Amoura's direct style could see him rack up goals, especially in an open group stage. He represents excellent value as a potential breakout star.

Sadio Mané (Senegal) – 17.00

Sadio Mané remains the main man and primary goal threat for a Senegal side tipped in most African Cup of Nations predictions to go deep in the tournament. His recent international form is excellent, with 6 goals in his last 8 matches for Senegal in 2025, proving his enduring class. While Senegal's system is not built around a single player, Mané's role is pivotal. He plays with freedom, takes penalties, and is their go-to player when the going gets tough. With Senegal projected as strong semi-finalists, Mané is likely to play 5-6 games. His combination of big-match experience, relentless movement, and penalty duties makes him a formidable contender. However, his odds are slightly longer due to Senegal's spread of goal threats across the team.

Group Winner Predictions

Based on squad quality, head-to-head dynamics, and tournament pedigree, here are our expert Africa Cup of Nations predictions and analysis for which team will top each group in Morocco:

Group A: Morocco

• Predicted Winner: Morocco
• Key Rival: Mali
• Analysis: As hosts and top seeds, Morocco are clear favourites. However, Mali will challenge them as a strong, physical side that has historically troubled big teams. The group's decisive match will likely be Morocco vs. Mali. Expect the hosts to leverage home advantage to top the group.

Group B: Egypt

• Predicted Winner: Egypt
• Key Rival: South Africa
• Analysis: Egypt's tournament experience gives them an edge. However, South Africa's disciplined, cohesive unit under Hugo Broos is a major threat and could cause an upset. Angola is a potential spoiler. Egypt should advance, but first place is not guaranteed in this competitive group.

Group C: Nigeria

• Predicted Winner: Nigeria
• Key Rival: Tunisia
• Analysis: Nigeria's attacking firepower, led by Victor Osimhen, makes them favourites. Their main task is to overcome Tunisia's typically stubborn and well-organised defence. If Nigeria's attack clicks, they should win the group, but Tunisia has the tactical discipline to make it difficult.

Group D: Senegal

• Predicted Winner: Senegal
• Key Rival: DR Congo
• Analysis: Senegal are the strongest team in this group. DR Congo is a rising force who are organised, physical and technically gifted, with dangerous attacking players. They will be Senegal’s main competition. The Teranga Lions' balance and experience should see them finish first, but DR Congo is capable of pushing them all the way.

Group E: Algeria

• Predicted Winner: Algeria
• Key Rival: Burkina Faso
• Analysis: Algeria are in fantastic form and should win this group. Burkina Faso, consistently a tough opponent, will be their closest challenger. Equatorial Guinea, who dazzled at the last tournament and delivered the biggest shock result with their 4-0 victory over hosts Ivory Coast, cannot be underestimated as a potential disruptor. Algeria's quality should prevail.

Group F: Ivory Coast

• Predicted Winner: Ivory Coast
• Key Rival: Cameroon
• Analysis: This is the “Group of Death”. The defending champions, Ivory Coast, face a Cameroon side in chaos, but who still have tournament pedigree to lean on. Gabon, with Pierre Aubameyang, look good and will be dangerous. They already pushed Ivory Coast all the way in their World Cup qualifying group. The clash between the Elephants and the Indomitable Lions will likely decide the group winner, with the Ivory Coast's slightly more settled squad giving them a narrow edge. There is a chance Gabon sneaks in ahead of Cameroon.

MVP Favourites

The Player of the Tournament award typically rewards a standout performer from one of the finalists. It balances individual brilliance with a team's success, leadership, and impact on the biggest stage. Based on these criteria, here are the top favourites for 2025 AFCON MVP:

• Achraf Hakimi: The recently crowned African Footballer of the Year stands as the frontrunner on home soil. If hosts Morocco fulfil their destiny and win, Hakimi's unique role as a world-class defender who is also their most potent attacking weapon from fullback would make him the symbol of their triumph. The only thing that could get in the way is his current injury. He is still not fit but is expected to take part in the tournament at some point. If he is influential in the knockout stages after returning, it could be his.

• Mohamed Salah: His candidacy is narrative-driven. Should he finally lead Egypt to the title that has eluded him, completing his national team legacy, it would be almost impossible to deny him the individual award, regardless of the exact goal tally.

• Victor Osimhen: He would claim the award through sheer, decisive impact. If he dominates the scoring charts and propels Nigeria to the championship, he would be the clear and deserving choice as the tournament's most valuable player.

• Brahim Diaz: He now stands as a contingency for Morocco's title hopes and a leading MVP candidate because of Achraf Hakimi’s injury and uncertain participation. A significant portion of Morocco's attacking plan and creative responsibility falls immediately on Díaz's shoulders. If Morocco wins the tournament with Hakimi's role reduced, the narrative will centre on Díaz’s role in delivering the title.

What Happened at the 2023 Edition?

The 2023 Africa Cup of Nations delivered dramatic entertainment and the most unexpected comeback story in AFCON history. Ivory Coast went from being on the verge of elimination in the group stage to a remarkable triumph marked by late comebacks and drama.

The 2023 Final

Ivory Coast defeated Nigeria 2-1 in a thrilling final held in Abidjan. The Elephants' victory was particularly remarkable given they sacked their coach mid-tournament. Nigeria took the lead through William Troost-Ekong's header before half-time. Ivory Coast equalised early in the second half through Franck Kessié's powerful header before Sébastien Haller completed the comeback with a clinical strike.

The tournament showcased African football's quality, but also its unpredictability. There is no better tournament to back the underdog or the sleeping giant. That is something we noted in our AFCON predictions.

AFCON Betting Trends

Understanding historical betting patterns helps inform betting predictions. We have analysed recent editions to identify meaningful trends.

Betting Market	AFCON 2023	AFCON 2021	AFCON 2019
Designated Home Team Wins	25/52 (48%)	24/52 (46%)	26/52 (50%)
Designated Away Team Wins	15/52 (29%)	16/52 (31%)	15/52 (29%)
Full-time Draw	12/52 (23%)	12/52 (23%)	11/52 (21%)
Over 1.5 Goals	30/52 (58%)	26/52 (50%)	28/52 (54%)
Over 2.5 Goals	17/52 (33%)	14/52 (27%)	15/52 (29%)
Under 1.5 Goals	22/52 (42%)	26/52 (50%)	24/52 (46%)
Under 2.5 Goals	35/52 (67%)	38/52 (73%)	37/52 (71%)
Goals Per Game	119 goals (2.29)	100 goals (1.92)	102 goals (1.96)
Clean Sheets	42/104 (40%)	46/104 (44%)	44/104 (42%)

Last 10 AFCON Winners

1. 2023: Ivory Coast (3rd title)
2. 2021: Senegal (1st title)
3. 2019: Algeria (2nd title)
4. 2017: Cameroon (5th title)
5. 2015: Ivory Coast (2nd title)
6. 2013: Nigeria (3rd title)
7. 2012: Zambia (1st title)
8. 2010: Egypt (7th title)
9. 2008: Egypt (6th title)
10. 2006: Egypt (5th title)

Ivory Coast are the defending champions following their 2023 victory, while the most successful nation is Egypt, with a record seven titles.

Last 10 AFCON Top Scorers

Golden Boot winners often come from teams reaching latter tournament stages, but there have been rare exceptions. Emilio Nsue, top scorer at the last tournament, scored all his goals in the group stage, and his country crashed out in the round of 16.

Year	Top Scorer	Country	Goals
2023	Emilio Nsue	Equatorial Guinea	5
2021	Vincent Aboubakar	Cameroon	8
2019	Odion Ighalo	Nigeria	5
2017	Junior Kabananga	DR Congo	7
2015	Thievy Bifouma André Ayew Javier Balboa Dieumerci Mbokani Ahmed Akaïchi	Congo Ghana Equatorial Guinea DR Congo Tunisia	3
2013	Emmanuel Emenike Wakaso Mubarak	Nigeria Ghana	4
2012	Didier Drogba Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Houssine Kharja Christopher Katongo Emmanuel Mayuka Cheick Diabaté Manucho	Ivory Coast Gabon Morocco Zambia Zambia Mali Angola	3
2010	Mohamed ‘Gedo’ Nagy	Egypt	5
2008	Samuel Eto'o	Cameroon	5
2006	Samuel Eto'o	Cameroon	5

Last 5 AFCON MVPs

The MVP awards recognise the most outstanding individual performer, who often plays a pivotal role in their team's success. Here are the last five winners of the AFCON MVP award:

• 2023 – William Troost-Ekong (Nigeria)
• 2021 – Sadio Mané (Senegal)
• 2019 – Ismaël Bennacer (Algeria)
• 2017 – Christian Bassogog (Cameroon)
• 2015 – Christian Atsu (Ghana)

Safer Gambling

We strongly encourage readers to approach gambling responsibly as entertainment, not as a primary source of income or investment. Our AFCON predictions provide informed analysis only, not guaranteed outcomes. Please remember that all forms of betting carry risk and are intended for those aged 18 and over. Results in sports are never guaranteed, and it is vital to bet only money you can afford to lose. If you feel your gambling is becoming a problem, seek help from professional support services such as Gamble Alert.

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