Guinea-Bissau: Held in Antananarivo, and a door opens for Nigeria

Group L leaders Guinea-Bissau dropped their first points of the AFCON 2027 qualifiers with a 1-1 draw in Antananarivo on Thursday, hours before the Super Eagles face Tanzania in Uyo with a chance to cut the gap at the top.

Madagascar went ahead through Warren Caddy on 59 minutes and held the lead until the closing stages, when Galatasaray midfielder Renato Nhaga struck from long range to rescue a point. Tombie Vieira is credited with the assist in CAF's report.

The draw leaves Guinea-Bissau top on seven points from three matches. Nigeria have three points from two, and Madagascar are third on two points from three. Tanzania have already qualified as co-hosts, so the race for the group's place at the finals is between the other three, with Guinea-Bissau, as we set out before the game, the side Nigeria are chasing.

A late equaliser that still keeps Guinea-Bissau in front

For most of the second half, Madagascar were heading for a result that would have changed the shape of the group. Caddy's goal had them on course for a first win, and it would have lifted the Barea above Nigeria on points.

Nhaga's strike changed that. Guinea-Bissau keep an unbeaten record after wins over Tanzania and Nigeria, and they take a point from a difficult away trip. The two sides meet again on Tuesday 17 November, with Guinea-Bissau at home.

Analysis: Uyo now carries the weight of the whole group

The numbers are simple for the Super Eagles. A win over Tanzania on Friday would take them to six points, one behind Guinea-Bissau with both sides having played three games. A draw would leave them three behind, and a defeat would leave the leaders four clear with Nigeria's return trip to Zanzibar still to come.

What makes Thursday's result useful for Nigeria is the timing. Guinea-Bissau had won both their opening games, including the 3-0 win over Nigeria in Bissau, and a third win would have opened a six-point lead before Chelle's side kicked a ball this week. Instead, the door is open by one draw.

Goal difference could matter too. Nigeria's heavy defeat in Bissau left them behind on that front, so a comfortable win in Uyo would do more than a narrow one, especially if Guinea-Bissau beat Madagascar at home on Tuesday.

Madagascar's draw also keeps them in the picture on two points. They are not out of it, and their return meeting with the leaders in Bissau on Tuesday could shape Nigeria's chances as much as anything Chelle's side does in Friday's game with Tanzania.