Guinea-Bissau: Meet the Group L leaders Nigeria are chasing

Guinea-Bissau, the Group L leaders the Super Eagles must catch to reach AFCON 2027, take on Madagascar twice in this window without Trabzonspor striker Franculino Djú, who has been left out of Emiliano Té's 26-man squad with an injury.

The Djurtus lead the group on six points after beating Tanzania 2-0 and Nigeria 3-0 in Bissau. Nigeria are second on three, with Madagascar and Tanzania on a point each.

Because Tanzania are co-hosts and already qualified, the group's one remaining place is effectively between Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau, with Madagascar still in touch. That makes the Djurtus' double-header as important to Nigerian fans as the Super Eagles' own games against Tanzania.

Who is in, and who is not

Djú, 22, is the headline absence, Pan Africa Football reported on 4 November. Té has brought in two new faces: AS FAR Rabat defender Fallou Mendy and SC Braga forward Flinto Costa.

The first game is in Morocco, with Madagascar the nominal home side, and the second is at the Estádio Nacional 24 de Setembro in Bissau.

Madagascar need a first win

The Barea arrive with one point from two games, after a 2-1 defeat by Nigeria in Uyo and a 1-1 draw with Tanzania. Their 24-man squad, named on 6 November, includes midfielders Marco Ilaimaharitra and Rayan Raveloson, defender Thomas Fontaine and forwards Warren Caddy, Hakim Abdallah and Roman Ferber.

Analysis: a leader with a hole in attack, and a rival with nothing to lose

Losing a 22-year-old striker who plays his club football in the Turkish top flight is a real blow, and it comes in the window that could decide the group. The two new call-ups suggest Té is looking for fresh options rather than a like-for-like replacement.

Madagascar, meanwhile, have every reason to go for it. Without a win, they risk dropping out of the race altogether, and a side in that position tends to take more risks than one protecting a lead.

For Nigeria, the sums are simple. If Guinea-Bissau take six points, they reach 12 and the Super Eagles can do no better than trail them by three going into March, whatever happens against Tanzania. Every point Madagascar take off the Djurtus brings the March decider and its tie-break rules closer to Nigeria's own terms.