Gift Orban has reached 10 Süper Lig goals for Amed SK, the figure that Amedspor's president said in September would turn his loan from Hoffenheim into a permanent €3m transfer, while the striker watches the Super Eagles prepare for Tanzania without him.
The 24-year-old's latest goal came in a 4-3 defeat at Galatasaray on 7 November, when he scored Amed's second. That took him to 10 league goals and four assists in 11 games, according to Afrik-Foot's count, the most by any Nigerian in a European league this season and one more than Victor Osimhen.
His season already includes a hat-trick against İstanbul Başakşehir and a brace against Kasımpaşa, in his first campaign in Turkish football.
The clause, and why the details matter
Amedspor president Nahit Eren set out the terms in September, as reported by Afrik-Foot: a €500,000 loan fee paid to Hoffenheim, and a mandatory purchase clause worth €3m, payable in instalments, that is triggered if Orban scores 10 goals during the season.
That was not the first version of the deal. When Orban moved in the summer, reports described the purchase clause as optional, as Soccernet covered at the time, before the club's president gave his account of the terms, which Soccernet also reported when his contract details emerged.
Neither club has announced that the clause has been met. If Eren's version stands, Orban would become an Amed player at the end of the season.
Analysis: a bargain for Amed, a puzzle for Chelle
For Amed, €3m for a striker scoring at almost a goal a game is a good deal in any league. For Orban, a permanent home where he is the focal point may be worth more than another season of loans.
The harder question is the national team. Orban missed Eric Chelle's squad for the Tanzania double-header, which Pulse Nigeria described as a major talking point, and he did so in the same window that Osimhen was ruled out injured. Chelle has gone with Akor Adams, Tolu Arokodare and Taiwo Awoniyi instead, as Soccernet detailed when the squad was named.
There are reasons a coach might hesitate. The Süper Lig is not the Bundesliga or the Eredivisie, and Amed are not a side built to dominate the ball the way Nigeria want to against Tanzania. But 10 goals in 11 games is hard to ignore, and the gap between Orban's numbers and his national-team standing is hard to explain on goals alone.
If he keeps scoring at this rate until March, the next squad announcement will be the real test of whether club goals still open the Super Eagles door.