World Cup Favourites: Who Has the Best Chance in 2026?

The 2026 World Cup will be the biggest yet, with 48 teams. The tournament will be held in the USA, Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19th. Even with the extended format, only a few teams stand out as clear World Cup favourites.

In this guide, we’ll provide a detailed analysis of the main favourites, assessing their technical quality, recent results, squad data, and current betting market trends. Also, you can learn about the dark horses that could disrupt the usual order.

5 Favourite Teams to Win the 2026 World Cup

A few nations enter the 2026 tournament with stronger cases than the rest. Their recent results, squad depth, and long-term consistency place them among the leading World Cup favourites. The best World Cup betting sites rate them highly, and our analysis also gives them a strong chance of winning the tournament.

Let’s see them.

1. Argentina – FIFA Ranking 2

Argentina goes into 2026 with the profile of a defending champion still operating at a top level. Most top World Cup bookmakers list them in the 9.00 – 10.00 range. Their form supports that view. Across the last two international tournaments, Argentina have lost only two competitive matches since their 2022 World Cup title run and recently beat Brazil 4–1 in March without Messi.

Their tournament record under Lionel Scaloni remains one of the strongest in world football:

• 2021 Copa América champions
• 2022 World Cup champions
• 2024 Copa América champions

Argentina also conceded fewer than 10 goals across their last two qualifying campaigns combined, showing elite defensive structure.

The big question is Messi. He hasn’t confirmed his 2026 plans, but the team no longer depends on him as much as they once did. Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez provide steady scoring, while young midfielders Nico Paz and Franco Mastantuono add fresh creativity. The core of the defence, Romero, Lisandro Martínez, Molina, and Tagliafico, remains settled.

All bettors should note that Argentina rarely loses control of matches, so their squad continuity is higher than most top contenders. Also, multiple goal sources reduce risk if Messi sits out or plays limited minutes.

Their attack can slow down when facing deep defensive blocks, especially if they rotate heavily early in the group stage.

2. France – FIFA Ranking 3

France look set for another strong tournament run in 2026, having narrowly lost their bid for back-to-back titles in the 2022 final on penalties to Argentina. The top World Cup bookmakers usually keep them in the 7.00–8.50 range. They handled qualifying with control, taking 16 of 18 points and conceding just four goals, one of the best defensive records in Europe. Their Nations League showing also backed their level, pushing Spain to a wild 5–4 semifinal.

Kylian Mbappé is averaging close to 0.85 goals per game in recent competitive games for the national side. France also gained more creativity and pace through Michael Olise and a more stable Ousmane Dembélé. And, the midfield and defence remain elite with Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, and Theo Hernández.

Deschamps’ conservative style is still the main concern. But even with tactical caution, the squad’s depth keeps their floor high.

Key notes for bettors:

• One of the lowest goals-conceded records across all qualifiers
• Multiple goal sources if Mbappé is tightly marked
• Strong tournament experience under Deschamps (World Cup winners in 2018 and finalists in 2022)
• Reliable in matches where they need discipline over flair
• Occasional difficulty breaking down deep defensive blocks

Their group (Senegal, Norway with Haaland, and a playoff winner) won’t be simple, but France still sit firmly among the World Cup favourites.

3. Brazil – FIFA Ranking 5

Brazil are full of elite talent, but there are big questions to answer. Regulated bookmakers place them in the 7.00–9.00 range, lower than past cycles, mainly because they finished 5th in CONMEBOL. They also haven’t passed the World Cup quarter-finals since 2014, which matters for bettors looking at the long-term reliability.

Carlo Ancelotti’s arrival brings stability, especially with players he already knows well. Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo remain the main attacking threats, and Estevão gives Brazil a new spark. Casemiro looks more settled again, but the No.9 role is still a major issue. Brazil hasn’t had a consistent finisher since the prime Gabriel Jesus/Firmino years.

Their group (Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland) gives them space to build rhythm, but everything after that ramps up quickly. Brazil can still beat anyone, but they’re more volatile than the other World Cup favourites.

Key notes for bettors:

• Brazil’s qualifying defence allowed more shots per game than any other top South American side
• Heavy reliance on Vinícius/Rodrygo for goals
• No clear first-choice striker heading into 2026
• High ceiling under Ancelotti, but low cohesion compared to Argentina/France
• Group stage should boost confidence, but knockout consistency remains a concern

Brazil stays in the World Cup favourites tier, but they’re the most “boom or bust” team among the top five.

4. England – FIFA Ranking 4

England look more organised under Thomas Tuchel, and their qualifying run proved it. They became the first European team to win every match without conceding. Some games were slow against teams sitting deep, but the overall structure was clear. Their group (Croatia, Ghana, and Panama) gives them space to play. Bookmakers are setting World Cup odds for England at around 8.00.

The squad has quality everywhere. Jude Bellingham runs the midfield, Harry Kane is still one of the most complete forwards in the game, and Tuchel seems focused on balance rather than squeezing every big name into the XI.

Key notes for bettors:

• Strongest defensive qualifying record in Europe
• Very few high-quality chances allowed
• Reliable scoring from Kane and wide players
• Midfield control improves late-game stability
• Main weakness: breaking down low blocks

With this structure and depth, England deserve their spot among the World Cup favourites for 2026.

5. Spain – FIFA Ranking 1

Spain appear to be one of the most complete teams heading into 2026. Their Euro 2024 run showed how far they’ve come, and the same core keeps getting better. Because of that, bookmakers are setting 5.85–6.00 odds for Spain to win WC 2026, making them the current betting World Cup favourites. Lamine Yamal has grown into a genuine match-winner, Pedri is finally healthy and sharp, and Dean Huijsen has settled well into the back line. Goal scoring improved fast, with Mikel Merino and Mikel Oyarzabal both hitting six goals in qualifying.

They’re not flawless. Portugal exposed some weaknesses in the Nations League final, and Yamal’s workload is something the staff will need to manage. But the overall structure is solid: steady possession, reliable pressing, and a clear identity that suits tournament football. Their group (Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay) gives them an easy start, at least on paper.

Key notes for bettors:

• One of the highest possession and chance-creation rates in Europe
• Scoring issues improved significantly in the last two campaigns
• Defence boosted by Huijsen + experienced full-backs
• Only real concern: relying heavily on young stars for creativity
• A strong group draw increases their chances of building early momentum

With control, depth, and growing confidence, Spain fully deserve their place among the World Cup favourites.

2026 Dark Horses: Teams That Could Surprise

A few teams outside the main 2026 World Cup favourites have the form, talent, and experience to cause real problems. Here are some dark horses and long shots to keep an eye on:

Portugal

Portugal have the talent to trouble any World Cup favourites, but there are issues the team must resolve if they hope to win their first-ever World Cup. The Nations League win eased pressure on Roberto Martínez and kept Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting picture for 2026, even at 41. He’s still scoring, but Portugal often looks more fluid without him, as shown in their 9–1 win over Armenia when he wasn’t available. Bookmakers give them around 11.0 odds. Also, the group (Uzbekistan, Colombia, and a playoff winner) gives them a clear path to the knockouts.

Netherlands

The Netherlands is still unpredictable, but they’re always a threat. Their qualifying run was strong, six wins, two draws, 27 goals scored, and only four conceded. For an underdog, they have around 17.0 – 20.0 odds according to bookmakers. The backbone of the team is solid, with Virgil van Dijk, Matthijs de Ligt, and Jurrien Timber anchoring the defence, while Memphis Depay, Xavi Simons, and Cody Gakpo give them plenty going forward.

Croatia

Croatia always finds a way to stay competitive in international tournaments, despite their small size. Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić, and Andrej Kramarić are all above 30, with tons of experience. The good news for bettors is the balance coming through. Joško Gvardiol has developed into a top defender, and young players like Petar Sučić and Franjo Ivanović bring fresh legs around the veterans. As for the odds, Croatia are priced at around 50.00. Their group (England, Ghana, and Panama) is manageable, and Croatia tend to grow into tournaments.

Uruguay

Uruguay is one of the most unpredictable dark horses because Marcelo Bielsa brings chaos, intensity, and attacking football in equal measure. They’ve shown they can beat top teams, taking points off Brazil twice in the qualifiers, upsetting Argentina in Buenos Aires, and reaching the Copa América semifinals. The odds given to Uruguay are revolving around 50.00 – 55.00. Their group with Spain, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia gives them room to advance, but how far they go will depend entirely on which version of Bielsa’s Uruguay shows up.

How We Analyse the Favourite Teams for the World Cup

When we evaluate World Cup favourites, we use the same indicators that experts and regulated operators rely on. We review each factor, compare it with recent data, and then look at how the pieces fit together to present a reliable picture.

Here are the criteria we use:

• FIFA ranking: Current position and how much the team has climbed or dropped in the past year.
• Recent performance: We evaluate their results in recent competitive matches, including qualifiers, Copa America, the European Championship, and the Nations League.
• Squad quality: Key players, depth across positions, and international experience.
• Bookmaker odds: How licensed platforms rate the team’s chances based on form and squad data.
• Cup history: Past titles, consistent knockout runs, and overall tournament record.

Also, if you’re new to tournament markets, our guide on how to bet on the World Cup breaks down the basic steps and bet types in simple terms.

What Happened at the 2022 Edition?

The 2022 final set the standard for what elite teams look like under pressure. Argentina came in as a top contender with Messi’s last major run. France arrived as defending champions with lots of power. Both teams carried big expectations, and both delivered on them.

Argentina started stronger, controlled the midfield, and created clearer chances. But France showed the key lesson bettors should remember heading into 2026: momentum at this level can flip instantly.

Mbappé scored twice in 90 seconds, so the match went into extra time. The game finished 3-3, and Argentina won on penalties after another tense swing in momentum.

The real takeaway for bettors is simple:

• Even the best teams give up chances under pressure.
• Matches between favourites often turn on a single moment or individual brilliance.
• A team dominating early does not guarantee a stable outcome later.

Conclusion – What to Expect From the Favourites

The top World Cup favourites share the same profile: strong recent results, talented squads, proven leaders, tournament pedigree, and a steady presence at the top of the FIFA rankings. Still, football is unpredictable, and the best analysis can only give you a clearer picture, not a guaranteed outcome.

That’s why betting responsibly is advised here. Now, you have everything you need to make an informed decision before placing any future predictions.