Betting on Post-Match Penalties in Football: Calculated Move or an Adventure?

The phrase “penalties are a lottery” is echoed so frequently that it might seem like an undeniable truth. But does this saying hold any ground in reality? Clearly, when an underdog team manages to secure a draw against a favoured opponent in a decisive match, penalties appear to level the playing field.

What should be done when equally matched teams, like Real Madrid and PSG, reach a penalty shootout? In such scenarios, statistics and mathematical calculations come into play. But just how difficult is it to make informed bets on a penalty shootout? Let’s delve into this matter.

Why Penalties Aren’t Purely a Lottery

When betting on penalties, just like in other markets, the first thing you need to do is find the best odds. The reality is, even in penalty betting, you can uncover value because a bookmaker might make an error in assessing the players taking the penalties. The most reliable approach is to use the ratings of expert analytical sites, such as Legalbet and other trusted services. Say, Legalbet has compiled a list of top bookmakers, and you browse through the betting sites comparing them in search of the best odds for the upcoming penalty shootout. That’s an advantage.  When it comes to penalties, the key is to place your bet quickly.

As for the stats, the first piece of data any savvy bettor should be aware of comes from various sources: around 70% of penalties taken are successfully converted. In high-pressure final matches, this figure drops slightly to around 65%. This statistic alone indicates that while luck does play a role, the majority of penalties find the back of the net.

However, the saying “penalties are a lottery” isn’t exactly rooted in statistics. Instead, it conveys how these shootouts can balance the scales between two mismatched teams, making it incredibly tough (or perhaps impossible?) to predict the winner. For sports betting, this is precisely the type of uncertainty everyone tries to circumvent. So, where should one begin?

A Perfect Example: The Case of England

To debunk the notion that penalties are purely a game of chance, consider England as a case study. Historically, the team has performed abysmally in penalty shootouts, a streak of poor results that’s intriguing for sports betting in itself.

However, the national squad recently recognised that their approach to penalties was lacking in strategy. By conducting various studies, extensive training, and making strategic decisions such as appointing the right penalty takers and involving the goalkeeper, Jordan Pickford, in the planning process, England managed to turn things around.

Through these efforts, England defeated Colombia in the 2018 World Cup and Switzerland in the Euro 2020 finals, both in penalty shootouts. Previously, they had won only 2 out of 9 shootouts in similar competitions. This is an undeniably noteworthy stat.

Is It Worth the Gamble? Other Crucial Factors

Several other aspects need to be considered if one intends to build a sound betting strategy around penalty shootouts:

• Studies like those from the London School of Economics suggest that teams kicking first in the shootout have about a 60% greater chance of winning, though other studies contradict this.
• Does the favourite team have better odds of winning? Yes, but the difference narrows significantly in penalty shootouts.
• More skilled players, particularly forwards, are more likely to score, as expected.
• While these points aid in conceptualising betting models, no single factor appears to dramatically alter the probabilities. It seems to be a confluence of various events, making precise calculations challenging.

How to Take Advantage of Penalty Shootouts in Betting

For those who decide to dive into this niche market, there are several betting options available:

• Bet on who will win the shootout before it begins.
• Over/under bets on the number of penalties converted.
• Bets on specific players either scoring or missing.
• Live betting — taking advantage of fluctuating odds, which can vary widely, sometimes reaching 80% to 100% or even more.

Despite the array of betting markets, it’s often difficult to predict in advance which bookmakers will offer these options. The rarity of penalty shootouts in finals further complicates matters. However, this shouldn’t be a reason to give up. Studying the history of teams and individual players, including goalkeepers, is crucial.

Cristiano Ronaldo, for instance, is renowned for his penalty-taking prowess. Considering higher odds on underdog teams might also be a viable strategy. Lastly, betting on misses rather than scores can be another route to find favourable odds.

Penalty Shootout Bets: Calculation or Luck?

There is an entire science behind penalties and determining who wins these nail-biting contests. Yet, this doesn’t mean a bettor can grasp it as easily as other more straightforward betting markets. Anyone wishing to include this betting aspect in their repertoire must, without question, be prepared for extensive study and analysis.