Handicap Betting in football is a type of wager where the bookmaker adds or deducts goals from a team before kick-off to give them an advantage or disadvantage. If a side is considered a clear favourite, the bookmaker can deduct from their expected total goals and expect them to overturn the goal difference.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
How Does Handicap Betting Work?
Handicap Betting works by giving a virtual advantage to an underdog or a disadvantage to the stronger team. The aim is to make the game more balanced, improving the betting odds.
For instance, in an EPL game between Manchester United and Southampton, you would expect the Red Devils to win by a wide goal difference at Old Trafford. Sticking with the outright win market might not provide good value and would not get you a good deal.
Why not give Southampton a 2-goal head start before the game starts? This would make the prediction more difficult and, so, offer better odds.
The underdog, which has a handicap advantage, has a positive symbol (+), while the stronger team has a negative handicap (-). It is similar to spread betting, where the superior team must win by more than the assigned spread. However, you might not find spread markets on football events—it is used mainly in Basketball and American Football.
In most cases, you would find the European handicap and Asian handicap at Nigerian betting sites.
Asian Handicap
With the Asian Handicap, there is no possibility of a draw; it's either a win or a loss. The bookmaker splits the handicap into multiples of full, half and quarter goals, giving options like +0.25, -0.5, -0.75, or +1.0.
If there is a draw after adjusting the scoreline with the handicap, the bet will be counted as a push. In this case, the bookmaker will refund half or your full stake, depending on the bet.
With a full goal (0.0, 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0), you win your stake if the adjusted score ends in a draw. Quarter goals (0.25, 0.75, 1.25, or 1.75) result in either a half-win or half-lose on draws, meaning you get half of your stake back.
On the other hand, half bets (0.5, 1.5, or 2.5) don't refund the stake on draw outcomes.
European Handicap
European Handicap betting is more straightforward than Asian Handicap betting. It is expressed only in whole numbers (+1, -1, or +2), and you have three outcomes: win, draw or lose. You don't get a refund here, as draw outcomes after calculating the handicap end in a lost bet.
Examples of Handicap Betting
A match between Manchester City and a lower-ranked team, let's say Ipswich.
Manchester City (-2) vs. Ipswich
Giving City a -2 handicap means that you have removed two goals from their expected total before the game starts. In essence, you have given Ipswich a 2-goal lead before kick-off.
- If City win by three goals or more, you win the bet.
- If City win by one or two goals, you lose the bet.
- You lose the bet if the game ends in a draw or Ipswich win.
However, it takes a different turn in an Asian handicap bet, where games that end in a draw are settled as a push.
Manchester City (-2.0) vs. Ipswich
A handicap of -2.0 to City means you have given them a 2-goal deficit, so
- If City win by three goals or more, you win the bet.
- If City win by two goals, the bookmaker refunds your stake.
- If City win by one goal, you lose the bet.
- You lose the bet if the game ends in a draw or Ipswich win.
How Do You Win a Handicap Bet?
To win a handicap bet, your favoured team must overturn the disadvantage or maintain the advantage the bookie has given before the start of the game. I will explain how this works using a UCL match between Real Madrid and Arsenal.
Arsenal (+1) or (0:1)
Arsenal have a goal advantage at the start of the game, so
- If Arsenal win, you win the bet.
- If the game ends in a draw, you win the bet.
- If Arsenal lose, you lose the bet.
Real Madrid (-1) or (1:0)
- Real are trailing by a goal at the start of the game, so
- If Real win by two or more goals, you win the bet.
- If Real win by a goal, you lose your bet.
- You lose the bet if the game ends in a draw or Arsenal win.
Arsenal (+2) or (0:2)
Arsenal have a 2-goal advantage at the start of the game, so
- If Arsenal win or draw, you win the bet.
- If Arsenal lose by one goal margin, you win the bet.
- You lose the bet if Arsenal lose by two or more goals.
How to Calculate Handicap Bets
Handicap betting calculation entails adding or deducting the initial advantage or disadvantage given by the bookie from a game's outcome. Follow my guide.
1. Understand the Handicap
Contrary to what you might think, a handicap bet is equally useful for backing underdogs to keep the defeat margin close or come up with a surprise win.
For instance, in an EPL match between Liverpool and a relegation-bound West Ham side, you bet +2 handicap on the underdog. It means you believe Liverpool won't win by more than one goal. Or West Ham would get a draw or a shocking win.
2. Apply the Handicap
My go-to way around applying handicap betting is to add the virtual advantage or subtract the disadvantage from the outcome.
For example, in an FA Cup tie between Chelsea and Bolton, a Championship side, you bet a -2 handicap on the Blues.
Take the final score as a 4:1 Chelsea win, and subtract the 2-goal handicap from the final score. The adjusted score will be 2:1 in the favour of Chelsea. You will win the bet as long as Chelsea remain victorious after the virtual adjustment is made.
3. Special Cases of Half Handicaps (0.0, +0.5, -0.5)
Handicap bets with decimals indicate Asian Handicaps. Since you cannot have a draw, your stake is refunded.
For example, in an Italian Serie A match between AC Milan and Juventus, you bet a 0.0 handicap on the home team.
It works like a Draw No Bet (DNB) market. A draw no bet wager means you back a team not to lose. You win your bet if your team wins, and you get refunded your stake if the match ends in a draw. However, you lose your bet if your team loses.
Going back to our example, you only win the bet if AC Milan win, and you will get your stake back if the game ends in a draw.
What if you make a -0.5 bet on the same match? This means AC Milan must be victorious to win the bet. There is no refund here.
What is a Good Handicap in Betting?
A good handicap bet is when there is a wide difference in the quality or recent form between two teams. Let's consider the example below:
If Barcelona, the league leader, are playing at home against a mid-table Alaves side, the odds might be so low -say 1.5, discouraging an outright win option. This means a ₦10,000 would return just ₦1,500. A handicap -1 bet is a good option to give better value.
However, keep in mind that it doesn't necessarily have to be a lopsided fixture. You can place a handicap bet on games with no clear favourite.
For instance, in a game between Real Madrid and Barcelona, you can give Real a +1.5 handicap if they have a good defensive record or previous results show only a goal margin between the two sides.
Generally, a positive handicap works better for tight matchups, while a negative one is best used for stronger teams.
Best Strategies for Handicap Betting
Before placing handicap bets on football matches, it is important to analyse strategies that might help you, for example, a team's current form and the betting odds given across different markets.
Research & Team Analysis
You have better chances of winning handicap bets when you depend on statistics, such as recent form, injuries, and previous encounters. If Barcelona has won 60% of their matches in a season by at least a 2-goal margin and Alaves has a leaky defence, a -1 or -2 handicap bet might be a strong option.
Market Selection
If you want to reduce risks by getting a refund on draw outcomes or more flexible prediction angles, I recommend Asian handicap betting. On the other hand, the European handicap is more straightforward and favourable for one-sided games.
Odds Value
Handicap betting comes in handy in cases where betting odds don't reflect your analysis. For example, Tottenham has a solid home record against West Ham, but the bookie sets the odds in favour of the away side. You can use a negative European handicap to get a better deal.
Live Betting Considerations
With handicap markets available on live events, you can monitor the flow of a game and make better predictions. If you are tipping an underdog, an early goal against them gives you the chance to hedge your handicap bets.
Recommended Bookmakers for Handicap Betting
If you're thinking of trying handicap football bets, these are some of the best football handicap betting sites I've tested and trust. They’re all legally operating in Nigeria and regularly offer above market odds for this market.
1xBet
The 1xBet handicap market is one of the most comprehensive I have come across in recent times. Aside from offering a wide range of European handicap options on 3-way bets, the bookie has quarter-goal options like -0.25, +0.75, and +1.25.
Betway
Betway offers a good range of European handicap betting markets, but not so much on Asian handicaps. I found just three Asian handicap sections across several football competitions in contrast to seven for the European market. Nonetheless, I like that the bookie offers handicap markets on live bets.
Bet9ja
Bet9ja accepts handicap football wagers on major football leagues, like the EPL, La Liga, French Ligue 1, and the UCL. The European handicap betting market ranges from -3 to +3. However, the Asian options range from 0 to +2.5.
Not sure which Nigerian sportsbook to go with? Read our expert reviews of the top betting sites in Nigeria to help you choose the one that suits you best.
Common Questions About Handicap Football Betting
What does +1.5 handicap mean?
The +1.5 handicap meaning is straightforward: the favoured team gets a virtual 1.5-goal lead at kickoff. The bet will win if the team wins, draws, or loses with a goal margin.
What does +2 handicap mean?
The +2 handicap in football betting refers to a situation where a team has a two-goal virtual lead at the start of the game. The team must win, draw, or not lose by more than one goal to win the bet.
What is the meaning of handicap 0-3?
A 0-3 handicap means the away team is leading by three clear goals at the beginning of the game. The bet wins if the away team wins, draws, or loses the game by less than three goals.
What is the best way to define a handicap?
A handicap is an advantage or disadvantage a bookmaker gives a team before the start of a game to balance the betting odds.
Is handicap the same as spread betting?
Yes, handicap and spread betting work the same way. You give a team an advantage or disadvantage and expect them to overturn it before the final whistle. The main difference is that handicap gives you a better betting angle or flexibility (particularly Asian handicap) than spread betting.